http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/opinion/venezuela-in-a-vise.html 2016-10-11 15:45:41 Venezuela in a Vise The government’s efforts to block a referendum against President Maduro are undemocratic and unconstitutional — and a betrayal of Hugo Chávez. === Thousands of people are expected to fan out in protest across A so-called recall referendum may be held if 20 percent of registered voters in each state sign a petition at the end of this month. It’s up to the This foot-dragging has been called Back in 1998, when Mr. Chávez, then a charismatic former army officer, For Mr. Chávez, this was partly a way to justify his role in history. In 1992, he had led a Later, Mr. Chávez would argue that his revolt had been legitimate because Venezuela’s Constitution at the time contained no provision for getting rid of a catastrophically underperforming president. “The Venezuela of ‘92 was so different from today’s Venezuela,” he said in a 2000 television interview. “Back then, all exits were blocked, totally blocked.” “Today,” Fast forward to 2016. Once again, Venezuelans are disgusted with a government they elected. Since After oil prices tumbled in 2014, Venezuela has experienced the kind of Desperation is roiling just beneath the surface. Voters said to be in favor of removing Mr. Maduro from office far outnumber those against: nearly 68 percent, compared with 23.5 percent, according to a poll taken this summer Venezuela is no longer a country split between roughly two antagonistic halves: a pro-government left and an opposition-minded right. Now, a small, heavily militarized state elite rules over a hungry, desperate mass of people who increasingly hate it. The elite, made up of the powerful ruling party and its supporters in the military and the bureaucracy, labels itself socialist, and in a way it is: It resembles nothing more than the Soviet elite of the early 1980s. Old chants are still sung and old certainties are repeated, but it’s a threadbare act, lacking real conviction. A broad and diverse opposition movement has coalesced around the need to return Venezuela to democracy. But it finds itself in a peculiar predicament: Although its numbers are strong, it is virtually powerless. Several opposition leaders — Leopoldo López, Manuel Rosales, Yon Goicoechea — are political prisoners. Others are being followed and harassed. The opposition And now the Maduro government, by maneuvering to deny a timely recall vote, is shutting down any institutional avenue out of the crisis — doing precisely what Mr. Chávez said had justified his 1992 rebellion. Which is why today, depressingly, Venezuela’s fate once again may rest where it should never be: with the armed forces. Yet Chavistas, of all people, should realize the dangers of making it necessary for a group of desperate officers, spurred on by history, to go off into the middle of the night to see what comes of it.