http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/21/world/middleeast/iran-us-nuclear-talks.html 2014-11-20 19:22:10 Beyond Iran Nuclear Talks, Real Hurdles May Be in Tehran Whatever deal is reached in Vienna between Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian negotiators, it may not matter if hard-liners have their way. === TEHRAN — Far from the flashing cameras and microphones in Vienna, where Secretary of State John Kerry is going to join Iranian and United States diplomats in a final push to reach a nuclear compromise, another political drama unfolded this week in a prominent auditorium in the Iranian capital. Iran “My brothers, we are in danger,” one of the conference organizers, Ali Hassanzadeh told an audience of conservative lawmakers, activists and hundreds of their most loyal supporters. A video was played portraying the moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, and his negotiators as gullible and conned by the United States. “A bad deal will be unacceptable,” Mr. Hassanzadeh concluded. Under the Iranian system the final decision on whether to accept or reject the nuclear deal lies with the supreme leader, Ayatollah When that debate gets underway, the voices of the hard-liners — the clerics, Republican Guard commanders and others who are by and large closest to the supreme leader — will be raised against compromise, making the case for continuing the Islamic republic’s harsh anti-Western ideology and strict control of its citizens. Most analysts believe those arguments will hold sway with Mr. Khamenei. But there is another developing line of thought in Iran that is far more hopeful, and in line with the desires of many urban Iranians, if much less widely shared among members of the establishment. Some say that a nuclear deal is being planned by powerful figures in the Iranian leadership as the start of a fundamental shift in Iran’s ideology, aimed not only at normalizing relations with the world but also at rebranding the now 35-year-old Islamic revolution. There was nothing of that in the air at the state-sanctioned hard-liners meeting, however, where copies of a book of speeches by Mr. Khamenei, with a title taken from one of his most famous quotes, “I Am a Revolutionary, Not a Diplomat,” were selling well for around 50 cents a copy. There were also DVDs for sale with eavesdropped recordings of Iran’s Western-educated foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, warning other diplomats that if there was no deal, Iran would again speak with the tongue of the hard-liners. Inside the auditorium, a smiling young man led a lone foreigner to a seat, as a cinema-size screen showed portraits of several Iranian nuclear scientists who were killed from 2010 to 2012, “by the Americans,” as one speaker insisted. “What are these nuclear dealings that no one has information about?” asked one cleric, Hamid Rouhani, no relation to President Rouhani. “It is as if we have returned to the time of the monarchy, with secret deals without involvement of the people.” Summing up their position in the talks, one young man held up a yellow placard proclaiming: “No Compromise. No Submission. Only fighting with America.” The ease and confidence with which hard-line representatives organize such meetings, where visitors walk over American flags and, recently, shout things like “Death to Obama,” is a sign of their deep hold on power in Iran. In contrast, Iran’s Interior Ministry, which is controlled by the government, has not allowed public rallies or meetings to denounce the negotiations. “In the name of our almighty God, who is greater than American imperialism,” said Alireza Mataji, a 26-year old organizer of the event, “we are granted permits for meetings because we represent the people and pay ourselves.” Their march to power, which has given them control over the judiciary, Parliament, the security forces and large parts of the economy, was partly facilitated by Iran’s leaders. That has made people like Mr. Mataji loyal foot soldiers and firm ideological believers. The hard-liners say they operate under the banner of Iran’s leader, Mr. Khamenei, who has repeatedly warned that he is “not optimistic” over the chances of reaching a nuclear deal with West and particularly the United States, which he regards as Iran’s archenemy. “We will witness the leader coming out after a bad deal with a speech elaborating on why the United States cannot be trusted,” Mr. Mataji predicted. “All except some wealthy people who are ready to sell out the country’s sovereignty will understand the deceiving nature of the Americans.” Still, Mr. Khamenei has also publicly stated that no group can actively oppose the nuclear negotiators as they try to get a satisfactory deal out of the talks, labeling them “children of the revolution.” While expressing his doubts over the potential for success, Iran’s leader has stressed that when talking to the enemy “heroic flexibility” can be a tactic in achieving Iran’s goals of keeping its In recent weeks many clerics and commanders have followed Mr. Khamenei in his support of the nuclear team, but always with the caveat that any deal must be one that lifts all sanctions and keeps most parts of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. “They stand to lose power, money and influence if the deal happens,” said Saeed Laylaz, an economist close to the government. “Naturally, they are worried, but they will be isolated as many of the wealthy and key figures will join those leading the changes that are inevitably coming.” A failure to complete a deal and a breakdown in the talks, many here say, will almost surely turn Mr. Rouhani, the main promoter of détente, into a lame duck president, ending any chance of his executing his agenda of more personal freedoms and better relations with the rest of the world. If a deal is reached, though, they say the opposite could happen, and those who have been marginalized over the years by the hard-liners — the reformists, centrists, moderates and groups that have long and unsuccessfully promoted change — will be the beneficiaries. Surprisingly, a political adviser long aligned with Iran’s hard-line faction predicts that this is precisely what is going to happen, with Iran repositioning itself following a successful agreement. “If there is a deal, and if it is good, the entire system will go along with it,” said the adviser, Amir Mohebbian, who is close to several prominent Iranian leaders. “There will be a huge political shift after a deal.” He said that with the rise of Sunni radicalism in the Middle East, Iran’s ideology of radical resistance against “imperialism” needs an update. “We strive to be the leading nation in the Islamic world and faced with the Islamic State it is much better for us to attract support if we represent a moderate version of Islam. We still demand justice, but will try to get it in another way.” Mr. Mohebbian’s views, which he says he has based on contacts with the highest circles of Iran’s establishment, are taboo, publicly, at least, among those holding power in Iran. But they are attuned to many if not most middle-class Iranians, who increasingly feel alienated from the rigid ideology that has remained frozen in time since the 1979 revolution. “It is my conviction that those who make decisions within the system want it to be alive and supported,” he said. “For survival we need change.” Such a scenario may seem far-fetched, in that consistently at critical moments over the past 15 years, Iran’s leaders have thrown in their lot with the hard-liners, suppressing protests and promoting laws like a recent one against dog ownership to maintain harsh Islamic discipline. “I am not saying we are Switzerland,” said Mr. Mohebbian. “We have learned from history that if leaders show weakness they lose. But now our leaders feel strong and confident, so this is the moment for change.” Hard-liners, confident because of their influence, laugh at such ideas. “Even if there is a deal, Mr. Rouhani and like-minded people will be losers, because such a deal will not bring the prosperity that they have promised,” said Mr. Mataji, the engineer and organizer of Monday’s hard-line conference. “Anybody who thinks this will bring about ideological change must be joking.” But Mr. Mohebbian insisted change is coming. All the stars have aligned, he said. The society is beyond ready, and regionally Iran is strong and the United States confirms that, he said. He pointed to Iran’s military successes in the region, the fact that in Yemen pro-Iranian rebels have seized power, that Iraq is under even more Iranian influence and that the United States seemingly has abandoned plans to remove Iran’s ally in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad. “The fact that Obama writes letters directly to our leader Khamenei highlights Iran’s importance and confidence,” Mr. Mohebbian said. “This is a golden moment for us.”