http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/10/business/in-latin-america-growth-trumps-climate.html 2014-12-10 03:00:15 In Latin America, Growth Trumps Climate In countries like Brazil, where the economy has been slowing, government policy is prioritizing growth over plans to cut carbon emissions. === SANTIAGO, Chile — Eco-warriors on the front lines of climate diplomacy often frame the environmental conflict between the developed and the developing world as a version of the notorious skirmish between Mr. Summers, then chief economist of the World Bank, had lent his signature to “The economic logic behind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowest wage country is impeccable and we should face up to that,” the It can be tempting to understand the greenhouse gas negotiations this week in Lima, But the brawl between the American economist and the Brazilian environmentalist is the wrong historical precedent. Particularly these days, “There is a strategic vision in Brazil that it must close the gap that still separates it from rich, developed countries,” said Sérgio Leitão, head of public policy for Indeed, the relevant precedent happened two decades before the Rio Summit, in 1972, when the In the midst of what was called its “economic miracle,” Brazil was that year inaugurating the Trans-Amazonian highway. It was planning a mega-dam on the Paraná River at Itaipú and building a nuclear power plant at Angra dos Reis. Brazil not only saw no purpose in protecting its indigenous forests. It even offered tax incentives to replace them with lucrative Caribbean pine and eucalyptus. Pollution meant progress. Brazil wouldn’t be hoodwinked by conservation proposals that just aimed to keep it in poverty. In Stockholm, João Paulo dos Reis Veloso, the representative of Brazil’s military government, invited investors from around the world to “come pollute Brazil!” Grudgingly, perhaps, rich countries have accepted the notion that poorer countries that emit much less CO2 should be given a break to cut emissions more slowly — or in some cases not at all — and should be provided with cash and technology to help them limit their carbon footprint. Yet as calls for substantial and immediate emissions cuts have grown more intense, environmental advocates and allied policy makers seem to be losing sight of developing countries’ nonnegotiable constraint: They will not agree to grow less. The tension between climate and development crops up all over Latin America. Yet Aldo Cerda, who heads corporate affairs at the country’s budding climate exchange, says the intensity of The tension is also evident in “Peru is still a work in progress,” said Joe Keenan, who heads the Resolving this tension is proving difficult, at best. Take the report issued this year by the Brazil, where emissions from energy rose to almost 2.4 tons per person last year, is unlikely to agree to that anytime soon. “Brazilians are very far from understanding that the climate question is an obstacle that slows Brazil’s exploitation of natural resources,” Mr. Leitão, the In a 2012 study, Elizabeth A. Stanton, an environmental economist at Synapse Energy Economics, noted that projections by the International Energy Agency, on which leading climate models are based, assume that the least developed countries will fail to close the prosperity gap with the rich of the world. Income per person in the world’s poorest countries — about one-27th of that of people in the rich world — would inch ahead to one-20th in the year 2105. “This assumption — that economic development will fail in the poorest countries — results in lower business as usual global emissions, allowing emissions reduction targets to be less stringent in richer countries,” she The world’s poorest countries may well fail to overcome their misery. Still, the development imperative will beat the climate imperative every time. Brazil, by some accounts, is the Deforestation in the Amazon — the country’s main contribution to climate change — slowed sharply. Even as mineral and agricultural exports powered an economic boom that brought almost 25 million Brazilians out of poverty, greenhouse gas emissions fell by almost half from 2004 to 2012. But when Brazil’s fast-paced economy got stuck last year, concerns about the environment dropped down the priority list. A tax on gasoline was slashed in hopes of priming the economic pump, a decision that removed ethanol’s competitive advantage. A slump in And greenhouse gas emissions rose by nearly 8 percent in 2013 compared to the year before. “Until 2010 we had both high growth and falling emissions,” noted Tasso Azevedo, former director of the Environment Ministry’s National Forest Program and one of the lead designers of Brazil’s plan to combat deforestation. “Today Brazil is in the worst of worlds, emitting more and generating less growth.” There is evidence that the tension between economic development and climate change is not inevitable. Maybe greenhouse gas emissions Brazil, experts argue, could stop deforestation entirely. “We could double grain production to 350 million tons without felling any more forest,” said Eduardo Assad of the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation. And Brazil’s large ethanol industry still shows enormous promise. But how and when Brazil and other developing countries commit to a low-carbon path will always depend on whether there is enough growth to keep living standards on the rise. “We have so many tools to turn things around,” Mr. Assad said. The question is whether they will draw the needed investment. “This could be solved quickly if we can turn around the economic slowdown,” he said, “but if we can’t overcome the stagnant economy it’s going to be at a turtle’s pace.”