http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/16/sports/football/nfl-schedule-heres-who-we-think-will-win-in-week-6.html 2016-10-14 18:37:35 N.F.L. Schedule: Here’s Who We Think Will Win in Week 6 The 4-1 Cowboys play the 3-1 Packers; Colin Kaepernick starts for the 49ers; and unbeaten Minnesota is off. Here’s what to expect. === Ezekiel Elliott of the 4:25 p.m. Line: Packers by 4.5 Ezekiel Elliott, the electrifying Cowboys rookie, is doing his part to make running backs cool again. Dallas seems to be enjoying the ride, but things may get bumpy this week when Elliott is tested against the stingiest run defense in the N.F.L. “Always excited for a challenge,” Elliott told reporters. “That’s what competitors love: to go out there and be challenged.” Drafted with the No. 4 overall pick in this year’s draft, Elliott is leading the N.F.L. in rushing yards with 546. At least part of that success is owed to the offensive line, which helped DeMarco Murray lead the N.F.L. in rushing two seasons ago. Last year, it bulldozed the way for the Cowboys to rank ninth in the league in rushing despite the underwhelming duo of Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle splitting starts at running back. But Elliott deserves credit for showing a veteran’s ability to take full advantage of the opportunities the line affords him. Here’s the scary part: This year’s success has come with Dallas’s offensive line struggling to stay healthy. For the last two weeks, the Cowboys have been without Tyron Smith, who, according to Pro Football Focus, was the best run-blocking left tackle in the game last season. Smith is expected back this week. He will have to be at the top of his game because the Packers have allowed an N.F.L.-low 42.8 yards a game on the ground, on an ugly 1.99 yards a carry. The longest run against Green Bay this season was 14 yards, by Bobby Rainey of the Giants, last week, one of only two runs of 10-plus yards the Packers have allowed. But if there is an offensive line to break through Green Bay’s 3-4 defense, it’s Dallas’s. And if there is a back to take advantage, it is Elliott. If he succeeds, the Cowboys will go into a bye week on an incredible high. They can then begin the hand-wringing over whether Tony Romo should displace Dak Prescott at quarterback for Week 8. Pick: Cowboys 1 p.m. Line: Bills by 7.5 Colin Kaepernick’s critics have been writing him off as the irrelevant backup quarterback of a struggling team. His supporters have pointed out that it was just a few seasons ago that he led his team to a Super Bowl appearance — nearly winning it all — and that at 28 he may be ready to thrive in Coach Chip Kelly’s offense. Now that his contract has been reworked and he has been declared the team’s starting quarterback, Kaepernick will have a chance to prove one of the two camps correct. (The 49ers have insisted his benching had nothing to do with his contract, but it is worth pointing out that the new deal eliminates their liability in the case of injury.) Athletically, there are few players who can match Kaepernick’s size, speed and arm strength, but his flaws are many and include a poor ability to work in hostile environments, struggles with getting past his first read in the passing game and an extreme reliance on his running to get him out of trouble. Buffalo’s defense has been playing incredible football for the last three weeks, and Coach Rex Ryan will undoubtedly try to fluster Kaepernick, who has not thrown a regular-season pass since last November. Pick: Bills 1 p.m. Line: Eagles by 2.5 Carson Wentz would like a do-over for his last pass in a Week 5 loss to Detroit. The rookie quarterback had never thrown an interception when he heaved a ball more than 50 yards downfield in hopes of catching the Lions sleeping. The Lions were not asleep, and Wentz’s incredible turnover-free run ended, as did Philadelphia’s undefeated season. If Wentz can turn it into a learning experience, the loss will hardly matter, and he should get right back to winning this week. Pick: Eagles 4:25 p.m. Line: Seahawks by 6.5 Richard Sherman, Jones has piled up 345 receiving yards over the last three weeks, but that number is misleading because his totals were 16, 300 and 29. With Sherman shadowing him, it could be another down week. Pick: Seahawks 1 p.m. Line: Patriots by 8.5 Martellus Bennett is a 6-foot-6, 275-pound tight end who runs and catches like a wide receiver. He scored three touchdowns last week, including one in which he outraced a defensive back down the sideline and then jumped over another one into the end zone. All three of the touchdowns came after he had sustained an ankle injury that nearly forced him to leave the game. Asked how he did it, Bennett said he thought about the Marvel superhero Luke Cage and realized leaving the game on the back of a cart would look weak. “I’m like, What would Luke Cage do right now?” Bennett told reporters. “He’d get up and keep bouncing around.” In troubling news for the Bengals, Bennett is New England’s second-best tight end. Pick: Patriots 4:05 p.m. Line: Even After a 15-sack season last year, Khalil Mack of the Raiders seemed primed to become one of the league’s biggest stars. But switching from outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense to defensive end in a 4-3 has apparently not agreed with him; through five games, he has only one sack, and Oakland’s defense, which was expected to be competitive, has been awful. Quarterback Derek Carr, with help from his tremendous wide receivers, has put up enough offense to deliver a 4-1 record, but if the Raiders want to be serious contenders, they will need Mack and the defense to start pulling their weight. Pick: Raiders 1 p.m. Line: Steelers by 7.5 Le’Veon Bell’s three-game suspension gave the Steelers a chance to make sure the offense worked without him. Now that he is back, the team is clearly comfortable putting the ball in his hands and letting him carry them to victory. The only difference from past seasons is how much he is being used in the passing game. Through two games, he has 38 carries for 210 yards with 14 receptions for 122 yards. If he kept up those numbers, he would set career highs in rushing yards a game, receptions a game and receiving yards a game. Bell may want to focus on carrying the ball, as the Dolphins have allowed an N.F.L.-worst 150.8 rushing yards a game. Pick: Steelers 1 p.m. Line: Lions by 3.5 If not for two tremendous plays by Darius Slay, the Lions would be 1-4 and coming off a disastrous second-half collapse. Instead, Slay’s forced fumble and interception gave a win to a deeply flawed team that may have a false sense of security. With Aaron Donald, the Rams’ dominant defensive lineman, disrupting Detroit’s attack and Todd Gurley overdue for a big game, this could be an upset on the road for Los Angeles. Pick: Rams 1 p.m. Line: Giants by 3 Jason Pierre-Paul, Olivier Vernon, Landon Collins and Leon Hall each have one sack, yet they are the co-leaders in that category for the Giants’ defense. So much for the days of Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck terrorizing opposing quarterbacks. The lack of pressure is troubling, but it may not matter this week against a Baltimore offense that is trying to find a new identity. Through five games, the Ravens have heavily favored the pass. But after struggling to score, they have turned to Marty Mornhinweg to be their new offensive coordinator. Even a mistake-prone Giants offense should be able to outscore a team in transition. Pick: Giants 8:30 p.m. Line: Texans by 3 Lamar Miller averaged 4.6 yards a carry in his four seasons with the Miami Dolphins and seemed capable of thriving, if given more opportunity. (He averaged 10.5 carries a game for the Dolphins.) Signing with Houston got him the carries he wanted, but he has not been up to the challenge thus far. Through five games, he has carried the ball 101 times for 371 yards, an unacceptable average of 3.7 yards a carry. If Miller cannot find some open field and Brock Osweiler continues to struggle, the Colts will be back to .500 after looking lost during an 0-2 start. Pick: Colts 1 p.m. Line: Panthers by 3 Last year, two teams (Houston and Kansas City) made the playoffs after starting the season 1-4, so the Panthers should not be ruled out just yet. But a defense that two weeks ago allowed more than 500 yards passing will be going up against Drew Brees, one of the most productive quarterbacks in N.F.L. history. Even if Cam Newton is fully recovered from a concussion he sustained two weeks ago — he was able to practice and is expected to start — he might not be able generate the offense to keep up with Brees. Pick: Saints 1 p.m. Line: Titans by 7 The identity of the Browns will understandably always be tied up in tales of the dominance of a young Jim Brown. But the modern team was perhaps best summed up in a single play in last week’s blowout loss to New England. The rookie quarterback Cody Kessler, the fourth player to throw a pass for the team this season, dropped back and was immediately under pressure. He tossed the ball away just as he was about to be crushed into the turf. As he lay on the ground, injured to the point that he was unable to return to the game, the ball that he had tossed away rolled out of the end zone for a safety, giving the Patriots 2 more points and putting the ball back in Tom Brady’s hands. It was perfect. Pick: Titans 1 p.m. Line: Bears by 2.5 When asked about his streak of three consecutive games in which he had passed for 300 or more yards without throwing an interception, Brian Hoyer of the Bears bordered on self-deprecating while also making a solid point. He told reporters: “It hasn’t translated to points or victories. I think passing yards is kind of an overrated stat when it comes down to it.” Pick: Jaguars