http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/08/science/global-warming-louisiana-flooding.html 2016-09-07 18:19:31 Scientists See Push From Climate Change in Louisiana Flooding Warming makes intense storms like those that hit southern Louisiana last month at least 40 percent more likely, researchers said. === Climate change has increased the likelihood of torrential downpours along the Gulf Coast like those that led to Using historical records of rainfall and computer models that simulate climate, the researchers, including several from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “But it’s probably much closer to a doubling of the probability” of such an event, or a 100 percent increase, said Heidi Cullen, chief scientist for A storm carrying large amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico stalled over southern Louisiana in mid-August, bringing several days of apocalyptic rain — up to two feet in 48 hours — that caused Gov. John Bel Edwards, who was forced to flee the flooding with his family, said damage was expected to be close to $9 billion. Climate scientists have long said that a warming atmosphere and oceans should lead to more intense and frequent rainstorms, because there will be greater evaporation, and warmer air holds more moisture. But until recent years most scientists have said it was not possible to link any single event to climate change. That is changing with the development of attribution studies, which use statistical analysis and climate modeling to compare the likelihood of an event occurring before industrialization, when there were essentially no greenhouse-gas emissions, and now, when the world is putting tens of billions of tons of carbon dioxide into the air each year. Normally such studies can take months, largely because of the computer time required to run climate simulations. But the Louisiana study is the To speed the research, “Hurricanes, frontal systems, thunderstorms — there are so many different ways to get a lot of precipitation” in the region, Dr. van der Wiel said. “It’s very important that the models realistically represent the weather.” World Weather Attribution has conducted several similar studies in the past two years, including one earlier this year that linked This marks the first time that NOAA has participated in a rapid attribution study. Monica Allen, a NOAA spokeswoman, said the agency would consider taking part in future studies. “Researchers, communities and businesses alike see the value in these analyses,’ she said. “They help us grapple with what has happened and strengthen our ability to stay resilient to future events.” Barry D. Keim, Louisiana’s state climatologist and a professor at Louisiana State University, said that while he was not familiar with World Weather Attribution’s methods, “I’m just not convinced that we can attribute any single event to climate change.” Nonetheless, he said, “there are some general consistencies between this event and climate change.”