http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/world/asia/prime-minister-shinzo-abe-calls-for-early-elections-in-japan.html 2014-11-18 12:53:55 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Calls for Early Elections in Japan The prime minister declared he would dissolve Parliament to hold national elections next month, saying he wants a new mandate from voters for his suddenly stumbling government. === IWAKUNI, Japan — With his once-vaunted plan for reviving In an appeal on live national television, Mr. Abe explained his decision to hold the elections by saying he wanted to ask voters to approve a decision to postpone a scheduled increase in the national sales tax, which he warned could further hurt growth. But he also framed it as a broader referendum on whether voters still support his economic measures, known as Abenomics. “There are divided opinions about the economic policies that we are pursuing. There is also resistance,” Mr. Abe said. “To continue advancing that growth strategy with the support of the people, we need to listen to the voice of people.” Political analysts said the decision to call an election was an admission by Mr. Abe that his widely praised program intended to pull Japan out of its two-decade slump was clearly losing steam. The program, a mix of increased government spending and an aggressive pumping of cash into the economy by the central bank, lifted the stock market and won praise as a potential model for other developed economies. In Washington last year, Mr. Abe proudly proclaimed that Japan was back on solid footing. Now it appears he may have spoken too soon. Economists say that growth in the Japanese economy, the world’s third largest, after the United States and China, has faltered because of a failure to follow up with painful market-opening changes and the ill-timed increase in the national sales tax. The final blow came on Monday, when growth figures showed that Japan had fallen into recession. Mr. Abe said that report, and growing criticism from opposition parties that his policies were failing, prompted him to call for an election. “There is criticism that Abenomics is a failure,” Mr. Abe said. “So what should we do? Unfortunately, I have yet to hear one concrete idea.” Political analysts said that calling elections also appeared to be a bid to renew support for a government that has suffered from a growing number of financing and other scandals. While he has been able to overcome major political damage so far, the problems are similar to one’s Mr. Abe faced during his first term as prime minister, which toppled his government seven years ago. Analysts said a prolonged economic slowdown could spell the end of the so-called Abe phenomenon, in which the prime minister enjoyed high approval ratings and appeared destined to stay in office for several years, a rarity in a nation with a long series of leaders with short political life spans. They said the basis of his popularity was in his success in lifting some of Japan’s economic gloom, and in restoring confidence. “The size of the economy’s decline was a big shock to Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party,” said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a professor of politics at Toyo University in Tokyo. “It makes Abenomics look like a failure. Abe suddenly looks desperate to stay in power.” Analysts also said the recent signs that Abenomics was fizzling could hamper, or even block, Mr. Abe’s attempts to implement less popular parts of his agenda, such as expanding the role of Japan’s military, or restarting its shut-down nuclear industry. Perhaps most important to voters, Mr. Abe is seeking a mandate on an issue close to voters’ pocketbooks: whether to postpone a second scheduled increase of the national sales tax, which by law is supposed to take place next year. In explaining his decision on Tuesday to call an election, Mr. Abe said he wanted to submit the issue to voters because it would amount to a reversal of a position by his Liberal Democratic Party, which supported the tax increase law when it passed two years ago. Such a delay would undoubtedly prove popular among voters, especially after the first increase of the sales tax earlier this year was widely blamed for contributing the current recession. However, many political experts also said they detected a deep pessimism under Mr. Abe’s decision. By calling an election, they said, Mr. Abe was essentially admitting that he did not see the economy regaining its energy anytime soon. Such a negative assessment of the country’s economic future might be pushing him to hold the election now, before voters become even more unhappy. Mr. Abe’s approval ratings have begun to fall recently, with percentages in the low 40s in recent opinion surveys. “There is only one reason to call an election now, and that is the fear that things will be only worse if he waits,” said Gerald L. Curtis, a specialist on Japanese politics at Columbia University. “The expectation of political stability and an Abe administration unchallenged for six years, that so many thought just two weeks ago was the most likely scenario, is now history. Suddenly, we have an economy in recession, a government in political trouble and a very cloudy future.” Indeed, with Mr. Abe suddenly facing so many problems, an election now might seem risky. However, analysts said the leader was betting that his party still has one thing going for it: It remains more appealing to voters than the main opposition Democratic Party, which has fallen into disarray since its elector defeat two years ago. In fact, experts said, one reason to call the election is to prevent the Democrats and other opposition parties from having enough time to enlist candidates and mount a serious election challenge. With the vote only a month away, the Democrats admit they have candidates to compete in only about 134 of Japan’s 295 electoral districts. The next-largest opposition party, the Japan Innovation Party, run by the mayor of Osaka, has said it can field less than 75 candidates. “The opposition has been caught with its pants down,” Mr. Curtis said. “Waiting another year to call the election only gives the opposition more time to get better organized.”