http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/28/sports/football/week-13-nfl-matchups.html 2014-11-28 16:00:37 Week 13 N.F.L. Matchups This week’s games include a matchup at Lambeau Field between New England, the league’s hottest team, and Green Bay, the game’s best home team. === Patriots 4:25 p.m. Sunday Line: Packers by 3 When New England Coach Bill Belichick was asked about similarities between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, he said deadpan, “They both wear No. 12.” Asked if he could expand on the comparison, Green Bay Coach Mike McCarthy said, “They’re both from California.” It is good to know that if these Much of the focus on this game will be on each team’s quarterback, but on a cold afternoon at Lambeau Field, the hottest team in the N.F.L. will enter the hostile territory of the game’s best home team, and it may be something to behold. Helping matters considerably for the Patriots is a return to the two-tight-end system that Belichick was perfecting in 2011 but had to put in storage when Aaron Hernandez ran into injury problems, then In Hernandez’s place as the counterbalance to the superstar Rob Gronkowski is Tim Wright, a tight end acquired in the trade that sent Logan Mankins, a six-time Pro Bowl guard, to Tampa Bay. A footnote at the time of the trade, Wright has turned six of his 23 receptions into touchdowns and in Week 12 was on the field for 61 of 81 offensive snaps. He and Gronkowski have combined for 81 catches, 1,032 yards and 15 touchdowns, and their size and versatility give Brady options in any climate. There is no harder place to win as a road team than Lambeau Field, but the Patriots have won seven straight games and have the personnel to succeed. Pick: Patriots Broncos (8-3) at Chiefs (7-4) 8:30 p.m. Sunday Line: Broncos by 2.5 Kansas City’s defeating Seattle and losing to Oakland in back-to-back games was confusing, at best. The shocking loss knocked the Chiefs out of first place in the A.F.C. West, then they received awful news: Eric Berry, a Pro Bowl safety, Pick: Chiefs Browns (7-4) at Bills (6-5) 1 p.m. Sunday Line: Bills by 3 A huge snowstorm forced Buffalo to play the Jets in a Week 12 home game at Ford Field in Detroit. The stadium rolled out the red carpet, painting Bills logos on the turf and setting up a temporary locker room for them. Now they return to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., where the snow has been cleared. But the Bills might not be all that happy to leave Detroit’s cozy dome if the weather is bad. Their game plan will not change: Run the ball, play solid defense and rely on Kyle Orton to minimize mistakes while scoring enough to win. Cleveland has had a good season, and the return of Josh Gordon has made the Browns’ offense that much more dangerous. But the Bills should hold strong. Pick: Bills Chargers (7-4) at Ravens (7-4) 1 p.m. Sunday Line: Ravens by 6 ½ Baltimore does two things exceptionally well: Run the ball and prevent other teams from running the ball. That old-school style of play has served the Ravens well this season even if the strong arm of quarterback Joe Flacco seems somewhat wasted. The key has been the emergence of Justin Forsett, a seventh-year running back who was a seventh-round draft pick in 2008, who had never carried the ball more than 118 times in a season before this season. Forsett has averaged a remarkable 5.8 yards a carry and has scored seven touchdowns. The Baltimore defense has done its part, going 21 consecutive games without allowing an opposing running back to rush for 100 yards. Pick: Ravens Saints (4-7) at Steelers (7-4) 1 p.m. Sunday Line: Steelers by 5 Ben Roethlisberger’s passer rating at home this season is 130.5, so high that he could light up the New Orleans defense in a blowout win and still have his rating decline. Having had a chance to regroup after an upset loss to the Jets and a narrow win against lowly Tennessee, Pittsburgh will look to continue its offensive dominance at home against a team that seems to have no interest in playing defense. Pick: Steelers Redskins (3-8) at Colts (7-4) 1 p.m. Sunday Line: Colts by 10 It is entirely possible that Robert Griffin III has lost the ability to play quarterback, but determining that based on his performance in the last few games seems premature. He has received little protection from his offensive line: Griffin has been sacked 16 times in his last three games. He is no longer as mobile as he once was, so the lack of time for plays to develop has rendered him somewhat useless. Colt McCoy had some luck in a limited stretch this season, but if Washington continues to let opposing defenses run freely in the backfield, it will not matter who is playing quarterback. Pick: Colts Cardinals (9-2) at Falcons (4-7) 4:05 p.m. Sunday Line: Cardinals by 2 Arizona may have a Super Bowl-quality defense, but its offense in the wake of Carson Palmer’s season-ending injury is poor. The Cardinals have scored 3 points in their last seven quarters, and even a defense as bad as Atlanta’s will probably shut down Drew Stanton & Company. No longer invincible at home the way they were as recently as two seasons ago, the Falcons are tied for the N.F.C. South lead despite a poor record and could stay there with a win over the Cardinals, who are in jeopardy of losing their grip on the N.F.C. West if they do not find some offense immediately. Pick: Falcons Panthers (3-7-1) at Vikings (4-7) 1 p.m. Sunday Line: Vikings by 2 ½ The last time Carolina won a game was Week 5, but a win at Minnesota, along with losses by Atlanta and New Orleans, would give the Panthers the N.F.C. South lead. “As crazy as it seems, we still have an opportunity,” Coach Ron Rivera said of his team’s chances of winning the division. Pick: Vikings Titans (2-9) at Texans (5-6) 1 p.m. Sunday Line: Texans by 7 The last time Tennessee quarterback Zach Mettenberger faced Houston, he was making his debut as a starter and was so excited he posted a photo of himself on social media to commemorate the day. J. J. Watt, Houston’s one-man wrecking crew, sacked Mettenberger twice and imitated taking photos of himself in celebration. “It’s just a kind of a reminder: This is the National Football League, not high school,” Watt said after the game. “Welcome to the show.” Mettenberger has yet to win a game but has averaged more than 270 yards passing as a starter and may turn into a long-term solution for the Titans even if players like Watt occasionally have to remind him he has a long way to go. Pick: Texans Bengals (7-3-1) at Buccaneers (2-9) 1 p.m. Sunday Line: Bengals by 3 ½ Tampa Bay has few positives to point to this season, but it seems to have found a touchdown machine in Mike Evans. After spending his college career being on the receiving end of many of Johnny Manziel’s highlight-reel touchdowns at Texas A&M;, Evans has proved that his game translates to the N.F.L. with 49 catches and eight touchdowns. Beyond that, the Buccaneers do not have many attributes, and another loss would make them 0-6 at home. Pick: Bengals Giants (3-8) at Jaguars (1-10) 1 p.m. Sunday Line: Giants by 3 ½ Lost in the hoopla surrounding Odell Beckham Jr.’s Pick: Jaguars Raiders (1-10) at Rams (4-7) 1 p.m. Sunday Line: Rams by 7 Oakland seemed to catch lightning in a bottle in Week 12, when the rookie running back Latavius Murray had four carries for 112 yards in the team’s first win in more than a calendar year. But Murray sustained a concussion during the game, hurting the Raiders’ chance to build a winning streak. The last time they won consecutive games was in October 2012. Pick: Rams Dolphins (6-5) at Jets (2-9) 8:30 p.m. Monday Line: Dolphins by 7 Putting Geno Smith back in the Jets’ starting lineup may seem like a curious move because their offense looked considerably more dangerous with Michael Vick. But in a lost season, they probably figured it would be better to determine Smith’s long-term viability rather than try to squeeze out a meaningless win or two. That quarterback decision could go a long way to helping Miami’s playoff push, as the Dolphins face the Jets twice in their final five games of the season. Miami is looking for its first “Monday Night Football” win since Week 5 of the 2009 season. The Dolphins’ opponent in that game: the Jets. Pick: Dolphins